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October 29, 2006
Apple, doin' its thing
When I ran across this article in the New York Times the other day, Apple Profit Rises 27% Stock Jumps, I just knew I had to write a blog about it because, well for one, I just can't help giving a shout out to good old Apple, and secondly it made me think of a post by David Pogue back in September.
On September 20, Pogue wrote a post titled, "When Apple Hit Bottom," citing many of the cynical predictions for Apple's future made by analysts and columnists in 1996. Just for fun, I am including some of the best here:
Fortune, 2/19/1996: “By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise.”
Wired, “101 Ways to Save Apple,” 6/97: “1. Admit it. You’re out of the hardware game.”
BusinessWeek, 10/16/95: “Having underforecast demand, the company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog….The only alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a software-based company. The most likely candidate, many think, is IBM Corp."
Fortune, 2/19/1996: “Apple’s erratic performance has given it the reputation on Wall Street of a stock a long-term investor would probably avoid.”
The Financial Times, 7/11/97: “Apple no longer plays a leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry. ‘The idea that they’re going to go back to the past to hit a big home run…is delusional,’ says Dave Winer, a software developer.”
Now as Pogue points out, all of these forecasts were incredibly, ridiculously, embarassingly wrong, but just how wrong they were seems to be epitomized by this latest NY times article. Not only has Apple not met its doom, but it is still going and going incredibly strong, a major threat for oh, lets say IBM corp. As the title indicates, strong sales in Mac computers and Ipods (largely stimulated by back to school) led to a 27 percent rise in fiscal fourth quarter-profit (revenues for the quarter were 4.84 billion) - how about that Wall Street, still want to avoid those long-term investments in Apple? In addition Apple added 10 retail stores during the quarter, for a total of 165, and has begun piloting programs to sell Apple products at Best Buy. According to the market research company IDC, Apple's share of the computer market is 5.8 percent up from 4.3 percent in the quarter the year before. For this quarter, Apple is forecasting revenues of 6 to 6.2 billion. Staying true to its roots, maintaining their position as the user-friendly guys, "going back to the past to hit a big home run," has seemed to work pretty well for Apple.
So basically what I am trying to say is that I have always been a loyal Apple customer, even during those dark and gloomy days in the mid-90s, but for all those doomsdayers and skeptics, well, I hope you've seen the errors in your ways. As one analyst has pointed out in reference to the fourth quarter, "They blew away even the highest expectations on the Mac side," and it seems that this is not a fluke, but a trend for Apple Computers, Inc.
Posted by tawr at October 29, 2006 11:12 PM