February 06, 2008
Observations from Super Tuesday
Thinking about politics (duh).
Here are some observations on Super Tuesday.
First, the timing of these primaries is a joke. Everyone wanted to move their primary up to make their vote relevant. What happened in this process is that there were too many states - so the candidates did not really campaign in the states at all. So at the end of the day (to quote my brother), Iowa and New Hampshire are even MORE influential in this process.
Second, for the Democrats - we need a real vote for Michigan and Florida. Not everyone was on the ballot in Michigan and Florida was a beauty pageant. So these two critical states lost everything by going early. Clinton cannot claim that she deserves both - because the Michigan Democratic contest was a joke - with many candidates not on the ballot.
Third, winner take all does not belong in the primaries. I can buy this for the electoral college in the general election, but for someone to win 34% of the vote and take all the delegates - there is something wrong there. Glad this is an issue primarily for the GOP.
Fourth, say what you will about Clinton and Obama - what seems to be surprising is the total number of Democrats who are voting. I will put out some examples later, but they are clearly drawing people into the process. Hopefully, good turnout in the primaries will lead to closer races in the red states. Check out the Tennessee Results
Fifth, McCain in the new Kerry. Kerry became the front runner in 2004 based on the best alternative and carrying the mantle of elect-ability. I really like John McCain and I think he would do a great job - but if he has to change his message to reach out to conservatives, he might not be so attractive to independents. If he wins the nomination, he might have good support - like Dole had in 1996, but not what Bush did in 2000 and 2004. -- ADDED COMMENT - Remember that Kerry was also left for dead in the fall of 2003. It could be eerie. What would be interesting is if McCain chooses Lieberman as his running mate. He is actually more conservative that McCain in many regards and could reach out to the Independents and Democrats. I could also be a complete mess...
Sixth, Obama did better and won the states that Democrats do NOT typically win. Just a quick comment - I need to look at the numbers. But Obama won states like Missouri, Idaho, Utah, etc. Clinton took Tennessee, but this seems to be an interesting trend.
Seventh, even freaking Ryan Seacrest and American Idol judges know how to run a contest. Let's let them work out a primary schedule for 2012. After all, the contest for that nomination starts next week.
--added one more--
Eighth, maybe the polls are a bit less reliable because people are voting in numbers that are not truly expected. I know you think about New Hampshire when Clinton surprised everyone with a big win. The difference, many more women voting than was expected or polled (I think). So the surveys and the elections can be quite different.
Certainly makes for good television, especially with the writers on strike!
Posted by cseeman at February 6, 2008 05:51 AM