renh's blog: news and notes Archives

November 04, 2008

"Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much, and tonight, I remain her servant."

Posted by renh at 11:48 PM | Comments (0)

October 12, 2008

from cnn

1. How to earn a yield of nearly 5%
Boost your take by putting some money into a higher-yielding stock ETF such as iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY), currently paying 4.4%, or SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), paying 4.2%.

Put the rest into low-cost bond funds and perhaps a REIT to add diversity and boost your yield. Because of their low expenses, I like the intermediate-term Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) (4.6%), Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond (8.1%) and Vanguard REIT Index (4.9%).

Allocate your money according to the suggestions below for a yield of 4.9% (you'll want to dial back on the stocks as the years go by:

30% Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF
30% iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
20% Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund
10% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
10% Vanguard REIT Index Fund --Michael Sivy

2. How to "ladder" CDs for safety and income

3. How to know when a stock is really a bargain
When the market plunges 5% in one day, lots of stocks might look like they're on sale. But are they? Here's how to ID the true values. (Get the data below at morningstar.com.)

Step 1 Look at a stock's forward P/E. This is the price investors are willing to pay for every dollar of expected earnings. Compare this ratio with that of the company's peers and industry benchmark. The S&P 500's forward P/E is 13.8. What you want to see: ratio lower than average but not too low (Matthew Sauer, a senior vice president at value-oriented Ariel Investments, is cautious about P/Es below 8).
Step 2 Look at the trailing P/E, which is based on a company's past earnings. It will show whether a stock was cheap before the market's recent free-fall. What you want to see: ratio lower than industry average.
Step 3 Check the price-to-cash-flow ratio. This shows how much cash a company generates per share. It's sometimes a more reliable measure of value than P/E because cash, unlike earnings, cannot be manipulated easily by accountants. Again, compare the ratio with the industry benchmark and peers. What you want to see: ratio lower than average.
Step 4 Look for stability. A company that isn't highly leveraged (laden with debt) has a better chance of riding out the economic downturn. To find out if that's the case, see the company's balance sheet at The SEC's Web site. Divide total assets by total equity. What you want to see: ratio of 2 or lower (10 or lower for financial firms).
Step 5 Read the news. No matter what the numbers say, a stock could be a rotten choice if, say, the company is embroiled in a potentially costly lawsuit. Not every stock that appears cheap is a good deal. What you want to see: no obvious problems. Bottom Line: If a stock passes all these tests, you could be onto a good buy. --Carolyn Bigda
4. How to rebalance your portfolio
5. How to raise your credit score
35% Your payment history Pay your bills on time. Automating payments online can help.
30% How much you owe Keep balances on credit cards and other revolving accounts below 50% of your credit limit (lower is better).
15% Length of your credit history Rather than let old cards go dormant, charge a latte a month (then pay it off). No activity lowers your score.
10% Your new credit Don't open unnecessary new accounts. And if you're rate shopping for a mortgage or an auto loan, do it within two weeks; multiple requests could ding your score.
10% Your mix of loans You can't do much to change this (except get a credit card if you don't have one).
Bonus Request a free copy from each of the three major credit-reporting agencies at annualcreditreport.com. Then tell them about any mistakes you find that are not in your favor. --George Mannes
6. How to buy treasurys without paying a commission
When you're buying supersafe T-bills, notes and bonds, why fork over fees that will eat away at already slim returns? Go to treasurydirect.gov and follow the directions for opening an account. You'll need to let the Treasury link to your bank account, so keep your bank info handy.

Once you're authenticated (usually a few minutes later), you'll be able to bid in auctions for Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS (Treasury Inflation- Protected Securities). Sound intimidating? It's not.

"The big players end up setting the price," explains Stephen Meyerhardt of the Bureau of the Public Debt, an agency within the U.S. Treasury. All you do is submit what's known as a noncompetitive bid, and you'll get the same price that banks and brokers do.

Let's say you want to buy $10,000 worth of a 26-week T-bill. You'll see at the Web site that these bills are auctioned every Monday (except holidays).

Before the auction, place a bid online. After the auction, your bid will be accepted, and the Treasury will draw the money from your bank account. (It will draw less than $10,000; the exact amount depends on what the auction price is.)

And when the bill matures 182 days later? The Treasury returns the full face value of $10,000 (which includes the interest you earned) to your account automatically. --E.F.K.
7. How to get a great deal on a mortgage
8. How to maximize your take if you get laid off
9. How to estimate your true return
Sure, it's easy enough to click on our portfolio tracker and figure out the annual return of the various funds you own. But did your entire portfolio beat the market? To find out, complete this easy worksheet, suggests Colorado Springs financial planner Allan Roth.

A. The dollar value of your portfolio at the beginning of the period: __________

B. The portfolio value at the end of the period: _________

C. The net amount you added to or withdrew from your portfolio over the period (if it's a net withdrawal, the number will be negative): __________

D. Your portfolio's gain or loss (B minus C minus A): __________

E. Average amount in your portfolio during the period (A plus half of C): __________

F. Your estimated percent return (D divided by E times 100): __________

This worksheet isn't perfect. It assumes that all investments or withdrawals you made over the period in question happened in the middle of the period. But unless you made a huge withdrawal or investment at the very beginning or end, the results come pretty close. --Elizabeth Fenner

Posted by renh at 11:35 PM | Comments (0)

funding?!
M P or O B?

Posted by renh at 01:37 AM | Comments (0)

October 09, 2008

Dow falls about 300 points pulling it below 9,000 -- its lowest intraday level since July 1, 2003

Posted by renh at 03:40 PM | Comments (0)

October 08, 2008

"We have built an entire economy on lies and deceit," - suze

Posted by renh at 09:45 PM | Comments (0)

October 03, 2008

A 90-year-old Akron, Ohio, woman who shot herself as sheriff's deputies tried to evict her from her foreclosed home became a symbol of the nation's home mortgage crisis Friday.

Only 26 percent of those surveyed said that Palin was more intelligent in the debate compared to the 57 percent who chose Biden, according to the poll of 611 adult Americans, who tuned in to watch it. The poll had a sampling error of 4 points. Overall, 51 percent of the debate watchers said that Biden did the best job in the debate, while 36 percent gave the nod to Palin.

Posted by renh at 02:19 PM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2008

once in a hundred years?!

Right now the financial turmoil in the states is horrifying. Bear stern, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, lehman brothers, ... WB agreed to invest 5B in Goldman Sachs. He used to get good deals at times of turmoil and despair. I hope he is right this time. At this time, his remark is especially valuable - don't risk what you have for what you don't need and don't have.

Posted by renh at 11:03 PM | Comments (0)

August 27, 2008

is it worth 43 billion or not?

After the BJ2008O, there are a lot of thoughts. China has got more gold medals and put on a great show for the world. Even six or seven years ago when we first heard that BJ was going to be the host city, I had no doubt about that. But, I wasn't one hundred percent supportive for this idea. My concern was the budget. Now, after all those extravaganza, there is the bill 43 billion. Compared with the US deficit, it is a tiny amount. But to a lot of average Chinese working class people, this is an astronomical number, let alone to those still in poverty and struggling for everyday life. The Chinese people are always smart, hard-working, and with a great sense of hospitality, even at the expense of stretching too hard.

Posted by renh at 09:21 AM | Comments (0)

August 23, 2008

O & B

Ok, the ticket is O&B.

I like Hillary. I am disappointed in a way. But, again, I think it is unfair for her to settle for the 2nd position. I think her offering as a running mate is a much appreciated gesture.

I actually like Biden, too. I am a little happy to hear this new. Here is what I wrote on my blog after watching the CNN/Youtube debate.
"Biden: I like him. he seems to be realistic about the war and knowledgable. he's been in the green zone several times and darfur."

Posted by renh at 11:17 AM | Comments (0)

July 10, 2008

article from CNN

By John Leicester
Associated Press

BEIJING, China (AP) -- Faced with my blank look of incomprehension, the taxi driver took a deep breath and tried again.
"Ha-pi-tu-mi-te-yu," he intoned.

Wow, I thought, six years out of Beijing and a long-haul flight from Europe have turned my once almost fluent Chinese to mush.

Then, it hit me. This was English. "'Happy to meet you?"' I asked.

He beamed proudly.

Give Beijingers this much: They sure want Olympic visitors to feel right at home.

In the seven years since the Olympic movement anointed Beijing as host of the 2008 Summer Games, China's capital has undergone a transformation so thorough that "makeover" doesn't begin to describe the change.
English-language and anti-spitting lessons for the masses. Entire neighborhoods ripped down and rebuilt. Cutting-edge Western architects let loose to create futuristic landmarks amid the forests of gleaming new towers. The ancient capital has taken on an edgy, neon-electric 21st-century frenetic feel.

You have to search harder, in back alleys that the wreckers' balls have yet to reach, for the quiet, intimate village-like atmosphere that long set Beijing apart from more cosmopolitan Hong Kong and Shanghai. In smoothing the rough edges, some charm has been lost.

First-timers and those who've not been here for a while may, like me, find the new Beijing a bit of a jolt. Who knew that the world had so many construction cranes, or produced so much concrete, glass and steel?

The shock of witnessing such voracious change leaves an unsettling feeling about whether the rest of the world can compete with a waking power as hungry as China. The immense scale on display seems designed to impress; the new Terminal Three at Beijing International Airport, where many tourists will arrive, is the world's largest.

The modernization makes Beijing easier to visit. Cash machines on many blocks. Cool art galleries in old Soviet factories. Hangouts for backpackers, swanky hotels for the well-heeled. Late-night shopping. More clubs than even the most insomniac reveler could get through in a weekend. Clean taxis. New buses. More subway lines. While the bicycle once ruled the roads, cars do now, and traffic is often snarled. If you're brave, rent a bike. The city's largely flat; you have nothing to lose but your chain.

The food: Don't miss a meal. Restaurants are plentiful and generally clean, offering all varieties of Chinese cuisine and many foreign ones -- a turnaround from a generation ago when food was scarce and eateries few and dingy.
A nice touch: many now display color photos of their dishes. No more point-and-hope ordering from menus that often used to be only in Chinese, and far fewer comical English mistakes. A favorite from the old days: a hole-in-the-wall that served fried carp, but got the "A" and the "R" in the wrong order. Like many old haunts, it is now gone, replaced by a new office building.

For sightseeing, new landmarks compete for time and attention with older marvels, like the sprawling and ancient Forbidden City -- still a must-see.
The Olympic architectural jewel is the 91,000-seat, $450 million National Stadium. It's a knockout to look at. Bravo Switzerland-based architects Jacques Herzog and Pierre de Meuron. Beijingers call it the Bird's Nest because of the latticework of steel beams wrapped around the exterior. It will host the opening and closing ceremonies and track and field events.

Visitors without Olympic tickets will only be able to admire it from afar. Venues and the areas around them will be sealed off for the August 8-24 games.

The massive security Chinese officials are rolling out poses an Olympic-sized question: will it kill off the fun, feel like prison, seeing guys in uniform across the city? Could be. If you are not coming for the sport or for the Olympic experience, August may not be the most relaxed period to visit.

The upside is that if a police officer does ask you to move on, there's a fair chance he'll be polite and understandable.

A pre-Olympic "Good Manners Campaign" promoted courtesy and orderly queuing and frowned on swearing, spitting and littering in public. One of the Beijing government's slogans, according to state media, was: "Spitting kills even more than an atomic bomb." Paper spit bags have been passed out. In three weeks here in May and June, I didn't hear anyone noisily clearing their throat in public -- a once common sound.

Beijing authorities have also given English lessons to 400,000 people, state media say. Most taxi drivers, hotel employees and all Olympic volunteers have received etiquette and English training. More than 10,000 police officers received basic work-related "police English" and even some Japanese, Russian and Arabic training.

Among the phrases taught: "Welcome to Beijing, the host city of the 2008 Olympic Games. I recommend visiting the Great Wall; it is one of the seven wonders of the world."

Got that right. It was among seven new wonders of the world chosen in a global poll last year that elicited about 100 million votes via the Internet and text messages. The wall -- really a series of fortifications built over 1,500 years -- makes for an inspiring day out of the city. Take good shoes and water, so you can hike at least a little way from the crowds. Admire the way the wall hugs the hillsides as far as the eye can see. Take a bus or taxi there.

The Badaling section is easiest to reach, and therefore the most crowded. Sections at Mutianyu or Jinshanling are farther away but offer more spectacular mountain scenery. Both have cable cars, for those for whom hiking is difficult or who maybe ate too much crispy Beijing duck the night before.

The Forbidden City is worth taking time over, too. Meander through its courtyards, some huge, others small and cozy, like secret gardens. Chinese emperors once lived shut off from the outside world behind the vast palace's blood-red walls, amid eunuchs and concubines. A detail to look out for: the fierce Chinese dragons finely embossed on the copper window frames of some of the palace buildings.

Then leap from concubines to communism, by walking through the front gate of the palace to Tiananmen Square, where five-starred red Chinese flags make snapping sounds when there's a strong breeze.

Mao Zedong gazes across the square from his portrait hanging on Tiananmen gate, at the north end, toward his mausoleum where his body lies encased in a glass coffin.

Tiananmen is a must-see for Chinese visiting Beijing. That makes it a great place to people-watch. Tibetan monks, ruddy-cheeked peasants from some far-flung village, southerners with singsong accents throng the square.

It's one place you may also attract stares. Foreigners are still novelties for out-of-towners from China's more remote regions. Not so for more worldly-wise Beijingers, who will likely be more than ha-pi-tu-mi-te-yu.

Posted by renh at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

July 02, 2008

The problem, as Haeg sees it, is that the "hyper-manicured lawn" is looking increasingly out of date. In the 1950s, when suburbia first began to sprawl, a perfectly trimmed front yard embodied the post-war prosperity Americans aspired to. Today, amid rising fuel costs, food safety scares and growing environmental awareness, a chemically treated and verdant but nutritionally barren lawn seems wasteful, he says.

Posted by renh at 10:34 AM | Comments (0)

May 13, 2008

It is indeed very sad news. I am particularly concerned about the students trapped underneath the rubble and their devastated parents. Growing up under the single-child policy, I understand what the single child means to the parents and the grandparents. Especially, in traditional Chinese culture, the parents would count on the kids to take care of them when they get old. This is very different from the western culture.
I am satisfied with the Chinese government's rescue efforts. I am happy to see China is willing to accept foreign aid. One thing I felt could improve dramatically is the tech division. First, it is absolutely a disaster that the school building collapsed and over 900 students were trapped inside. The building collapsed in the middle with only the two stair paths stand on each end. from the picture, another building, which looks like an apartment building, stood very close to this one, yet was intact. I think the reason could be the school building needs to have big classrooms, therefore it doesn't have enough mechanical supporting elements per square feet. I remember the classrooms used to be big and empty (ie no arches/poles or beams/columns). This flaw might need more attention in the future. Second, there was no forecast. I understand it is rather difficult to predict the earthquake. After the quake, there wasn't enough media coverage about the seismological or geological facts. I read the article on the chinese seismological bureau, and they still didn't know what exactly was the cause. In order to prevent future tragedy, the data need to be collected and analyzed. Moreover, the spreading of the rumors can not be stopped until the facts are clear. Since it is known where the quake hot spots/belts are located, maybe it is possible to set up some surveillance system around the country, esp given the fact that a lot of the densely populated municipals are located in the "dangerous zone". Maybe more investment in science and research is needed in the future.

I also did a bit research. I was startle to find a county near my hometown had 3 mid-sized quakes within 77 days this year, and the city is located on the edge of one of the active zones in China.

Posted by renh at 04:17 PM | Comments (0)

April 22, 2008

Most admired companies

1. Apple
2. Berkshire Hathaway
3. GE
4. Google
5. Toyota
6. Starbucks
7. FedEx
8. Procter & Gamble
9. Johnson & Johnson
10. Goldman Sachs

Posted by renh at 12:40 PM | Comments (0)

March 19, 2008

600 vs 10000

From CNN "In a Washington Post editorial column earlier this month, a pair of leading economists projected that the Iraq war will wind up costing the U.S. government about $3 trillion, including factors such as future disability payments for injured veterans, interest payments on money borrowed to finance the war, and the costs resulting from disrupted oil markets."
$3 trillion divided by US population 303,666,477 equals 10000.
Tax rebate $600 per qualified person.

Plus some sad sad stories from CNN about the folks telling their money issue in their own words.

Posted by renh at 03:03 PM | Comments (0)

March 08, 2008

WB 2007 letter available.
Can't wait to read it.

Posted by renh at 10:23 PM | Comments (0)

February 28, 2008

It's been hectic recently. I have not web surfed for a while. Today during lunch break, I checked out some updates. And I was delighted to find out EN got a BMW hydrogen 7 car. I remember seeing this car one year ago at the auto show and was particular impressed (maybe more by the concept/idea less by the actually engineering design due to my ignorance of auto tech). One thing can be misleading is that this car can be powered by both hydrogen and gas. And given the relatively scares resource of hydrogen fuel, I doubt how many of these people who received H7 from BMW will drive this car with hydrogen in the tank for their daily use. It seems to be more for propaganda. Nevertheless, it's a good news.

Posted by renh at 01:15 PM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2008

I know you'll be reading

25 top-paying companies - CNN

Google
Average total pay: N.A.
For: N.A.
Best Companies rank: 1

SAS Institute
Average total pay: $104,566
For: Software Developer*
Best Companies rank: 29

Publix Super Markets
Average total pay: $107,280
For: Store Manager*
Best Companies rank: 91

Chesapeake Energy
Average total pay: $108,031
For: Toolpusher*
Best Companies rank: 61

OhioHealth
Average total pay: $108,143
For: Pharmacist*
Best Companies rank: 18

S.C. Johnson & Son
Average total pay: $110,587
For: Sr. Research Scientist*
Best Companies rank: 27

Yahoo
Average total pay: $116,250
For: Technical Yahoo*
Best Companies rank: 87

MITRE
Average total pay: $116,291
For: Lead Information Systems Engineer*
Best Companies rank: 42

Texas Instruments
Average total pay: $116,636
For: Electrical Design Engineer*
Best Companies rank: 100

Robert W. Baird
Average total pay: $123,800
For: Financial Analyst*
Best Companies rank: 39

eBay
Average total pay: $125,889
For: Software Engineer 4*
Best Companies rank: 68

Kimley-Horn & Associates
Average total pay: $127,167
For: Project Manager*
Best Companies rank: 38

Network Appliance
Average total pay: $129,689
For: MTS Software 4*
Best Companies rank: 14

Cisco Systems
Average total pay: $132,004
For: Software Engineer IV*
Best Companies rank: 6

Boston Consulting Group
Average total pay: $136,706
For: Consultant*
Best Companies rank: 11

Goldman Sachs
Average total pay: $137,000
For: Other Exempt (Analysts, Program Analysts, Associates, and Professional Non-Exempt)*
Best Companies rank: 9

Adobe Systems
Average total pay: $137,691
For: Computer Scientist*
Best Companies rank: 40

EOG Resources
Average total pay: $146,739
For: Engineer*
Best Companies rank: 64

Perkins Coie
Average total pay: $162,860
For: Associate*
Best Companies rank: 55

Devon Energy
Average total pay: $173,057
For: Engineer*
Best Companies rank: 48

Nixon Peabody
Average total pay: $178,016
For: Associate Attorney*
Best Companies rank: 66

Shared Technologies
Average total pay: $187,137
For: Sales Rep*
Best Companies rank: 25

Alston & Bird
Average total pay: $190,135
For: Associate Attorney*
Best Companies rank: 31

Arnold & Porter
Average total pay: $194,575
For: Associate*
Best Companies rank: 19

Bingham McCutchen
Average total pay: $211,017
For: Associate*
Best Companies rank: 41

Posted by renh at 10:01 PM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2008

what's wrong with ...

Honestly I don't know what's wrong with MI? I heard the news in the morning from my radio alarm clock. By noon, the campus email has arrived. The michigan legislature has decided new driver's license can only be granted to the US citizens or permanent residents. I can understand if it is a way to prevent illegal immigration, but the result of this is to simply punish all the immigrants both legal and illegal.
MI recently had an early primary this year, because the state wanted to raise the candidates' awareness of the state's economic issues. However, all the major democratic candidates withdrew their names from the ballot with the exception of Hillary. How sad.
I believe we now live in an era that technology and innovation really matter to society/economy. If the state doesn't have sufficient resources to fund big research institutes, maybe it can be more amenable to take on a friendlier attitude to intellects. If that's also impossible, maybe it can make the winter warmer sunnier more beautiful (hmm sounds like california) to improve the negative GDP increase rate.

Posted by renh at 01:59 PM | Comments (0)

January 08, 2008

NH

Hillary and McCain won the NH primary. I am kinda happy for them, not because I like them particularly. It was said before that they were written off the campaign. But they fought hard and cling on the hope and eventually came back, and that's the spirit I admire.

Posted by renh at 11:59 PM | Comments (0)

November 08, 2007

"I think we are at a moment of economic crisis stemming from four key areas: falling housing prices, lack of confidence in creditworthiness, the weak dollar and high oil prices," Schumer said. "Each of these problems alone would be enough of a threat to our economic well-being. But taken together, they are essentially the four horsemen of economic crisis."

Posted by renh at 11:04 AM | Comments (0)

September 13, 2007

look back, it is interesting to see that I have lived in such a period full of historical events.
911; before I came to america. I was shocked when staring at the computer screen and saw the twin towers fell and crumbled into dust.
new orleans; it's a shame that those people were abandoned and left with heat, hunger and despair.
war in iraq; who should be blamed, life parished, families destroyed, is it getting better, and who should be trusted and for how long.
Tripled gas price. subprime mortgage cirsis, bank liquidity troulbe, rate rised; the fed step in for rescue, rate will fall. It is interesting to look at the top 20 most profitable companies posted by CNN. Among them, big oil companies - production, refinery, &distributor, big banks and insurance agencies. at the same time, econ experts say the gap b/w the rich and poor enlarged, and the middle class is struggling. maybe people should pay less attention to the celebrities and more to ...

Posted by renh at 10:51 PM | Comments (0)

August 12, 2007

turmoil

CNN - Mortgage meltdown contagion
A grim forecast has economists more pessimistic over how far the collapse will spread to the rest of the economy.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The outlook for the housing market looks even bleaker than it did a week ago. Last Friday we reported that foreclosures were skyrocketing, home prices falling and recovery forecasts were being scaled back.

And now this week, the mortgage meltdown spread to the financial markets with ebola-like speed, sparking fears that tighter credit will have a broader impact on consumers, markets and the economy.
The U.S. government continues to downplay the danger. When the Federal Reserve met this week, the central bank said that inflation is the greatest threat to the economy, not the mortgage crisis.

Yet, Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest mortgage lender by volume, reported Thursday that "unprecedented disruptions" in the mortgage market were forcing it to cut way back on the number of loans it was securitizing and selling in the secondary markets.

In the financial markets, credit, including corporate bonds, has become harder to get. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, had been loath to call it a "credit crunch." Instead, he called it a "liquidity squeeze," that had spread to corporate bond and other financial markets. The difference: In a crunch, nobody can get a loan; in a squeeze, only the riskier borrowers are cut out.

"I think it's still a liquidity squeeze," Zandi now says, "but it has elements of a credit crunch, affecting much of the mortgage market."

It has yet to severely disrupt the prime loan market, however, according to Zandi. The situation will continue until financial institutions revalue their mortgage-backed securities to what they're actually worth.

"They're faced with redemptions and margin calls, and they have to value their securities to their market prices because they have to sell them," said Zandi. That will determine how hard a hit the investment community will take.

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. and author of "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," has said the problem goes way beyond subprime.

"It's a mortgage problem," he said. "Subprime is like a little leak where the underlying problem is the integrity of the dam itself. Most of the mortgages taken out during the past few years will fail."

Schiff expects huge losses in the housing market with home prices falling by half in some areas, which he said has to affect the overall economy. He said he'd been expecting the financial markets to start taking hits long before this week's drop.

"This week is making more sense," he said. "The economy is a basket case."

Most economists are nowhere near as pessimistic. Standard and Poor's chief economist, David Wyss, and Moody's Economy.com's chief economist, Mark Zandi, have forecast 8 percent price drops in the housing market, peak to trough.

Zandi does not believe a consumer spending slowdown is enough to trigger a recession, but he hasn't counted it out. What it will do, he said, is "ensure that the economy grows at a pace below its potential. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of a recession. I put the possibility at one in five."

Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, has said he doesn't believe the subprime contagion is enough to send the economy off-track, and that "the idea that average consumers are quaking over the prospects of losing their homes or much of their equity is wrong."

Your Home: When to cash out

The mortgage market adds up to about $10 trillion, according to Goldstein, with about 10 percent to 15 percent of that in subprime. Of that, some 15 percent or so is imperiled, he said.

"It's big, but not the tipping point that will bring the whole housing market down."

But on Friday Goldstein did concede that "The panic and concern over credit is even spreading across the pond to European markets."

On Friday the European Central Bank (ECB) pumped extra cash into the system for a second day in a row, as a means of calming nervous traders. The ECB added $83 billion in liquidity Friday.

The Federal Reserve followed suit, adding $19 billion in temporary reserves. The move was the biggest single temporary open market operation in four years, the New York Federal Reserve said, according to Reuters.

Subprime problems have not, so far, slowed consumption down much. The pace of consumer spending is still brisk, although growth slowed in June. And the Conference Board reported last week that consumer confidence is at a six-year high. Steady job growth and low unemployment (between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent since September) have kept it that way.

Consumers don't really care much about changes in housing prices or, for that matter, in the stock market, according to Goldstein.

"If you really want to screw up consumer confidence," he said, "go for the jugular - the labor market."

Said asset manager Mark Sirinyan of Ineo Capital, "I don't think there will be a recession because of private equity or the credit markets. There are lots of [positive] things going on. We're fighting a war and spending money."

Schiff, however, said, "What [the optimists] don't realize is that consumer spending has been a function of easy credit and the high housing market. The idea that Americans will keep spending is wrong. With [lower home equity and less access to credit] where're they going to get the money?"

Steven Cesinger, chief financial officer for Dewberry Capital, said, "People think liquidity will carry us forward. I've been in financial markets for 25 years and i've seen that the faucet can turn off as rapidly as it turns on."

According to Goldstein, though, as long as employment stays strong and workers' earnings grow substantially (4 percent annually, according to him), confidence - and spending - will remain high and the economy will chug along.

"Consumers can continue to stay resilient in the face of lower stock and home prices," he said. "Not only is the economy strong enough to survive the crisis, it's strong enough to quiet it."

------------------------------------------
from boston gal:
"Talk about moments of truth. That's when many owners will become renters, and many lenders will become harried owner-sellers. Then, not now, is when the housing market should start to bottom. It's also when consumers will be tightest with their spending, so we're likely to see the economy grow weaker.
How can we avoid getting caught in such cycles in the future?
First, don't borrow money just because a lender makes it available.

Second, ask yourself whether you'll be able to pay it back. Your lender is clueless, so it's up to you to know.

Third, don't plan on being able to sell anything quickly because these jokers can't be relied on to provide a steady and reasonable flow of financing. When their own foolishness comes back to bite them, they invariably make things worse by reducing lending, making a bad situation worse."
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Posted by renh at 10:36 AM | Comments (0)

August 09, 2007

For the first time in 12 years, Toyota's Lexus luxury brand has to share its top rank in J.D. Power and Associates' annual Vehicle Dependability Study.

And it has to share it with an American car.

General Motors' Buick brand tied Lexus in the study, which measures the number of problems owners experience with their cars after three years of ownership.

Following Lexus and Buick in the rankings were GM's Cadillac luxury brand, Ford's Mercury brand and Honda's Honda brand.

Toyota's mass-market Toyota brand ranked sixth.
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Cerberus Capital Management LP is one of the largest private equity investment firms in USA. The firm is based in New York, N.Y., and run by 47-year-old financier Steve Feinberg.

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July 24, 2007

the debate

I just watched some parts of the cnn&youtube democratic candidates debate at youtube. I am a foreigner, and to me it seems that this is a great idea and format to the american public to get them more involved and better informed, although I do agree with a lot of people that it could have been much better with more substance.
My opinion,
Gravel: direct, honest, and kind of bitter. but I like this guy, maybe not as the president-to-be.
Dodd: I am not sure he answered the questions. A definite no.
Richardson: did not stand out particularly.
Edward: sharp, good at playing words, I can see him as being a lawyer. I understand he grew up in a not so affluent family, but that did not justify for his bringing up this issue even when asked who was his favourite teacher.
Clinton: solid performance. I like her. She handled the questions with good strategy and maturity as a politician, and even with some humor. but then again, i hope her ties to the big corporations were less.
Obama: i know it's bad to judge a book by it's cover, but his ears are a problem for me. and i do think that he is not "authentically black enough". he might be more sincere, his fund raising has been successful, esp given the fact that it's most from the smaller donations, somehow, i wish he has been more experienced.
Biden: I like him. he seems to be realistic about the war and knowledgable. he's been in the green zone several times and darfur.
Kucinich: little guy, but his firm stand impressed me. the fact that he did not vote for the war or support for the funding for war seperated him from the rest of the candidates. I wish little guys can have more chances.

overall, i think it's not bad. it's not hard core political debate, but on the other hand it showed the other side of the candidates. and some of the questions were heartfelt. I was impressed by how they were executed and phrased. in the end, i felt kind of sad. who is nominated or elected is not my issue, i am just an ousider. nobody mentioned HIB. from the cnn board, it seems that h1b is bad for americans' job market. but then, they also talk about the education system here, just look at how many kids are failing high school. if enough high tech job candidates are available here, microsoft probably doesn't need to open a new division in vancouver to deal with the hiring problem.

Posted by renh at 06:20 PM | Comments (0)

July 10, 2007

BEIJING, China (Reuters) -- China executed a former drug and food safety chief on Tuesday for corruption in an unusually swift sentence which will serve as a warning amid a series of health scandals that have stained the "made in China" brand.

recently the news from China hasn't been very positive. The missing children forced into slavery working in kilns. The pet food poisoning and low quality tire. It is sort of a shame for me to hear this from the radio. but I think maybe this is a good opportunity for the chinese people to do a bit reflection. The majority of the goods China exports are cheap, labor intensive and low tech. Yet there are more and more high tech exports. you go to the store and pick something up, "Ah, another made in China"; however, the brand is owned by US/EU. I think this is a huge problem, the big corporations own the brand name, yet exploit the cheap chinese labor. I don't think this is good chinese economy in the long run. quality control and brand making are important. I hope we all have learned a lesson.

Posted by renh at 08:06 PM | Comments (0)

June 21, 2007

of the three vetoes during GWB's presidency so far, two are for stem cell research bill.

"even if the embryoes are to be thrown away from the fertility clinics, they can't be used for stem cell research, because it crossed a certain moral boundary."

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May 15, 2007

automobile industry

Toyota overtakes GM as world's top auto seller.

daimler divorced chrysler. 36 billion vs 7.4 billion. i wonder what's the problem for the american chrysler.

cerberus got the bid for the majority of chrysler. the private equity firm had participated in several american auto industry big deals. interesting.

Posted by renh at 07:22 PM | Comments (0)

February 26, 2007

OSCAR night

Best actress: Helen Mirren in “The Queen�? (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
Yeah, I am happy, really happy! I love the movie and Helen's performance. Just like what Helen said in her acceptance speech, " she is someone so well-known, yet we know so little about her." Beautiful movie, I thought it deserves the best picture award.

Best documentary short subject: “The Blood of Yingzhou District�?
Such a heavy topic to me. I still remembered that when Nicole asked me about the Henan poor farmers who got infected by HIV through donating blood. For some reason, I felt sad and shameful. This is the province where I came from. The blooming economy in the coastal china is a far different story from the impoverished countryside in mainland China. This documentary is about Anhui, another province in China. I haven't seen it yet, and probably would not. I read the introduction from IMDB, and I understand what it says there is probably true. "the most contagious virus is FEAR"-tagline

Best documentary feature ->“An Inconvenient Truth�? (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions)
Best live action short film-> the westbank story

I am happy to see these three awards, because behind the superfacial and showy stuff, it made me believe that hollywood indeed has an academy who care about the art and the world. Honestly, I do not like the talks about whose dress is more fashionable or glamorous. What l like to see is something deeper.

No award for Borat, a little disappointed. But this is within expectation.

No award for The painted veil. This is probably also within my expectation. But for some reason, there is something so powerful about the movie. I think I am a Edward Norton fan now. The next two movies I want to see is Fight Club and American History X.

Something hilarious, Al gore and Leo on stage. In the end, Gore pulled out an envelope. Well, this could be the most dramatic campaign strategy. Even if it is not real, it is certainly funny.

I like the show, although I thought Chris Rock was a better host. And, I like the commercials.

Posted by renh at 05:47 PM | Comments (0)

February 18, 2007

From Steve Irwin to Anna Nicole Smith

Anna Nicole Smith's sudden death definitely provided more topics for the entertainment circle. Who gets her body? Who will bury her? Who is her daughter's father?
She is pretty or beautiful. No doubt about that. I felt sorry about her death. She had a tough, although rich, life. Born without father, grow up in poverty, work as a stripper, teen pregnancy, marry a guy too old, woke up to find her 20-year-old dead at her bedside, the paternal dispute over her new born daughter, constantly battle the weight issue... I read an article in CNN about her, beauty and dysfunctional. May she rest in peace now.

I don't know why it reminded me of the shocking death of Steve Irwin. "Shortly after 01:00 UTC (11:00 AEST) on September 4, 2006, Irwin was fatally pierced in the chest by a stingray spine whilst snorkeling at the Great Barrier Reef, at Batt Reef, which is located off the coast of Port Douglas in Queensland. " This is also a shocking news. I like him and watching animal planet. I am not sure if it is because of his strong australian accent I can feel his passion about the animals - especially the "ugly" ones. He would always say "what a beauty". His family turned down the offer from the prime minister about a national funeral.

I still remember seeing them on TV when they were alive. Life is too delicate and too perishable. It's hard to realize and accept the idea that life can end anytime and anywhere. May those dead rest in peace, and may we alive cherish the precious life we're living.

Posted by renh at 01:52 PM | Comments (0)

November 12, 2006

US news

democrats won the majority of both the house and senate.
Nancy Pelosi will be the first female house speaker.
Donald Rumsfield resigned.

Posted by renh at 08:37 PM | Comments (0)

June 14, 2006

recent news and comment

Love BBC, what else can I say! Often hear cool news of China and even my hometown from BBC.
1. This one might be too old. But I think this news has a much bigger impact than the death of Al-zarqawi. "Chinese engineers Tuesday blew up a temporary barrier used during construction of the Three Gorges Dam, unleashing the full force of the Yangtze River upon the world's largest hydroelectric project." -- CNN. June 6. Not a big supporter of this hydroelectric project, and I am more concerned about the impact of this dam on the eco-system around the Yangtze River area. It's true that it can generate a huge amount of electricity, but at the same time, keep in mind that the electricity it generated is also the most expensive one. Just thinking about how many people have to leave the homeland and how many cultural legacies are going to be ruined gives me a chill.
2. Heard Terry interview Mary Cheney. Her book is "Now it's my turn, A Daughter's Chronicle of Political Life". I felt very sad for her during the interview. Here is the fact, she is a gay and in a long-term relationship, she worked for her father's political campaign, her father is the vice president, a pillar of the bush-cheney administration, Bush wants to pass the constitution amendment to ban gay marriage. Basically, she is working for someone to jeopadize her own potential legitimate marriage. she also admits that both her parents think this legislation issue should be left to each individual state, and she does hope gay marriage/civil union would become legitimate in the near future. I can tell that "marriage" is something she wants for both herself and her 14-year partner, heather. Yet literarilly she is working against it. And she loves her father dearly and support the current administration firmly. To me, this is so sad. I talked with Pete, and we came to the same conclusion - self-deceiving or brainwashed. I do not know whether Terry felt the same or not, but obviously she did not press Mary hard at sensitive issues. It's kind of awkward, sometimes.
3. It's world cup time again. There is world cup fever everywhere, but not in the States! This is utterly frustrating. Americans did not do well, 0-3 lost to Cech. World cup is the only sport that I would watch with true passion. Eight years ago, I watched the world cup and truly enjoyed it. That was after all the crazy high school study and college entrance exam, and it was so much fun. Four years ago, I watched it again, at that time, I graduated from college but have not left home for US yet. It was a fun time, too. Now, maybe because I just do not have the luxery of the leisure summer any more, and maybe that's why I can not watch the game and catch the world cup fever.
4. Vow, this is amazing, the authentic Chinese dialect from my hometown! It's BBC news again, not bad, it's about the economic development. The government is trying to build more and more highways, but messed up the budget. Hometown did change a lot in the past several years. The news is supprisigly accurate.
5. This morning another piece of news from mainland China. A famous TV host (not very sure) together with her two other colleagues published a topless photo to promote the awareness of breast cancer. Then there was a huge debate about the morality about her action. Now she is even suspended from her job. I am confused. My opinion: 1) it is not necessary to shot topless photo to promote the awareness for public health issue. It's simply too controversial, and besides there are many more reasonable ways; 2) her doing so is out of a good will. She did not violate any law, as far as I know, so she should not be punished. This is not a serious political news, but the BBC host tried to argue the strong censorship in China. I thought this was too far off. But what's wrong with Da vinci Code?

Posted by renh at 04:05 PM | Comments (0)